What really happened
WHO Ebola response team (2014)
\(d\log(\beta(t)) = \sigma dW_t\)
Dureau (2013)
Andrieu (2010), Murray (2013)
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts requires
multiple observations.
Gneiting et al., J R Stat Soc B (2007)
Need methods to select the best model and
combine all available data streams
(individual/spatial/genetic/social)
Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford (unpublished)
Anton Camacho, Adam Kucharski, Roz Eggo, John Edmunds (LSHTM)
Bruce Reeder, Etienne Gignoux, Iza Ciglenecki, Amanda Tiffany (MSF)
James Hensman (prowler.io), Lawrence Murray (Uppsala)
http://sbfnk.github.io
@sbfnk